Southern Methodist vs Fresno State 12/24/2012

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Fresno State is a heavy favorite winning 79% of simulations over Southern Methodist. Derek Carr is averaging 295 passing yards and 2.8 TDs per simulation and Robbie Rouse is projected for 136 rushing yards and a 74% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 21% of simulations where Southern Methodist wins, Garrett Gilbert averages 1.66 TD passes vs 1.07 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.84 TDs to 1.4 interceptions. Zach Line averages 98 rushing yards and 1.19 rushing TDs when Southern Methodist wins and 86 yards and 0.63 TDs in losses. Fresno State has a 46% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 87% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is FREST -11.5 --- Over/Under line is 60.5
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